Brief – May 2026 Election

Overview

The upcoming election is shaping up to be one of the most politically sensitive moments in recent years. President Hassan Sheikh is pushing forward with his plan for a 1-person, 1-vote system, insisting that Somalia should move toward direct public elections as part of his broader political agenda. From his side, this is presented as a necessary step toward political reform and modernization of the electoral process.

On the other hand, the opposition is rejecting this direction and is instead insisting that the country should continue with the traditional indirect system. They believe the electoral process and the institutions overseeing it are heavily influenced by Hassan Sheikh, and it will favour him.

What makes the situation more intense is the timing. With only a few days remaining before key political deadlines, neither side appears willing to step back or compromise. The positions are becoming more fixed, and the political space is getting tighter with each passing day.

What this means

Hassan Sheikh wants to secure his third term, and he might have found a loophole in his 1 man, 1 vote system. From the current political atmosphere, it does not look like he is planning to move away from it despite growing resistance around the country. The Banadir elections gave Hassan Sheikh strong political momentum, as he showed that direct elections can be held, and the process also drew positive political attention to Villa Somalia. Following that outcome, it now appears he wants to push the same direction again, with South West State. The message coming from the federal side is clear: the old indirect model should not continue forever, and Somalia has to eventually move toward a different electoral direction. With Puntland and Jubaland already rejecting the election process, Hassan Sheikh is focused on securing support from the remaining federal member states while also trying to place politically close allies in important regional seats like South West and possibly Galmudug.

The opposition, however, sees the situation very differently. Their position is that Somalia is still not institutionally or security-wise ready to hold nationwide direct elections at this stage. But beyond that, they also believe the current electoral institutions and the overall process are too heavily shaped and controlled by Hassan Sheikh and Villa Somalia itself. The system being built is not fully neutral and is more likely to benefit the sitting government politically than create a fair playing field for everyone involved. This is where much of the political tension is now coming from. The opposition feels that Hassan Sheikh is not only leading the political push for the elections, but is also influencing the institutions expected to organize and oversee the process itself. That creates a situation where one side is both competing in the election and shaping the rules around it at the same time. This belief has now become one of the biggest reasons why trust between Villa Somalia and the opposition continues to weaken as the country moves closer toward the elections.

The opposition itself does not appear united or politically prepared for the level of organization coming from Villa Somalia. Hassan Sheikh was successful in preventing the opposition’s planned protests on 10 May, suggesting he is willing to suppress political pressure to maintain control of the situation. While this may strengthen his position internally in the short term, it could also damage his image internationally. We expect political disagreements to be handled through dialogue and democratic space rather than restriction and force. Puntland and Jubaland have been relatively quiet after their earlier rejection of the process.

Attention is now turning toward what happens next as May 15 approaches.

Conclusion

The idea of 1 person, 1 vote is a good one, and many Somalis want to eventually see a system where citizens directly choose their leaders. But the growing tension around this process shows that trust between political actors is still very weak. At the same time, it should not be used or shaped in a way that benefits certain political figures, because that would undermine its purpose and damage public confidence in the whole process.
Even though both sides seem fixed in their positions, there is still a clear need for dialogue between them to avoid further political escalation.
There needs to be transparency from the government to ensure the process is seen as neutral and fair by all political actors. Without that trust and openness, any electoral process risks deepening divisions rather than strengthening the country’s political system. There is also a need for external actors, including the African Union, to help oversee the process and support a framework that is credible, balanced, and widely accepted by all sides